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Study: Baby boomers not driving hospital growth

NEWS IN BRIEF — Posted May 1, 2006

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A recent study says local population trends and medical care technology advances are likely to be more responsible for driving hospital construction than a usual reason cited -- aging baby boomers.

The study by the Center for Studying Health System Change found that between 2005 and 2015, population aging will account for an increase of utilization of inpatient services of only about 0.74% per year, or 7.6% over the whole period, compared with a projected overall 64.8% increase in inpatient utilization during the same period. Instead, local population trends and medical technology advances will play a much more significant role in driving community need for additional inpatient hospital capacity, the study said.

The figures were calculated using federal data on all-payer severity-adjusted diagnosis-related group relative charge weights and U.S. Census Bureau population projections. They reflect the per-person increase in resource use including cost, kinds of services and expenditures related to those services.

The study said the aging population is often cited as one of the reasons behind the sharp increase in hospital construction in recent years. And the American Hospital Assn. has noted that factor in discussions about the construction boom.

Caroline Steinberg, vice president of the AHA, said the boom can be attributed to many factors. She said the study was flawed because it did not account for those other drivers. "The study fails to factor in the advances made in health care and how those advances affect the demand for hospital care," she said.

"Today's elderly patient is much more likely to be living with heart disease, diabetes and other chronic conditions," she added. "But that same patient also has the opportunity to live an active life made possible by significant advances in medicine."

Note: This item originally appeared at http://www.ama-assn.org/amednews/2006/05/01/bibf0501.htm.

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